Welcome!



Welcome!

 



Thank you for your subscription!

Your payment has been approved, and you are set to proceed with a modern investment approach that utilizes state-of-the-art, sophisticated algorithms, created by strategy designers with more than five decades of collective experience in building quantitative investment models.

Our team has thoroughly checked your model for robustness in hundreds of possible variations, all type of market environments, and each strategy has been operating Out-of-Sample (OoS) for a significant amount of time (some for more than 20 years). In utilizing as many as 38 different data sets for its decision-process, your ETFOptimize strategy is one of the most advanced and sophisticated investment models ever constructed, designed to exceed your expectations in a broad spectrum of conditions.

Please read the sections below regarding 1) Accessing your new strategy, 2) Using your Premium ETF Investment Strategy, and 3) Our Recommendations for Success. Once read, digested and understood, then you can click the link at the bottom of this page to Log-In and continue to your Premium Strategy page.

...Or, if you want to access your strategy immediately, make sure to bookmark this page and come back to it later to review the material. This page contains important information that you will need to maximize the success of your subscription! Then click the following link or copy and paste this text link into your browser's address window to go to the log-in page:

https://etfoptimize.com/amember/login

 The Subscriber Login page is also available via link ("Premium Content LOG-IN") in the solid-black menu bar at the top and bottom of every page of the site.

 

PLEASE REVIEW THE MATERIAL ON THIS PAGE!



Accessing Your Strategy

 • You can access your strategy(s) via the Premium Content Log-in page. The Log-In page is your ONLY entry into the password-protected area of the site, your access to your subscription strategies, and other premium, members-only content.
Please bookmark the Log-In page!
  (If you misplace that link, don't worry, you can also click the "Subscriber LOG-IN" link in the solid-black menu bar at the top of any page of the site.)

• If you forget the name of the Premium Strategy to which you have subscribed, there is also no need for concern. The name and a link to each strategy for which you have a subscription appears on the Log-in page after you enter your passwords. If you would like to add a strategy to your subscription, please visit our Knowledgebase for detailed information.

• The Log-in page is also your • entry to access password-protected, subscriber-only material, such as the latest 'ETFOptimize Insights' market reports and 'Inside Secrets of Investing' blog articles (reports and articles are made available to the public after a week). A link to all password-protected content will appear on your Subscriber Menu page after you have entered your passwords.

• If you misplace your passwords, click the "Forgot password?" Link next to the Log-in button on the Log-in page. This feature offers self-service access to your passwords if you can provide your email address. If you cannot remember the email address you used to sign up, you can contact ETFOptimize with a Support ticket. We will respond within 24 hours, usually sooner.

Shortcut: Optionally, you can access ETFOptimize using a shorter URL – at ETFOpt.com – or even (1-letter) shorter, ETFOp.com. You can use whichever one you remember easiest if you are travelling and not on your regular machine with your customary bookmarks. (Just make sure the computer you're visiting doesn't save your passwords, or your account could be locked because of use by strangers.) From the above shortened URL, you will be redirect to our secure, main website at ETFOptimize.com.

We strongly suggest that you read and understand the information in the next section, Using Your Premium Investment Strategy, to ensure you have the greatest opportunity for success.

 

 


Using Your Premium Strategy


Getting Started

1) Make sure we can contact you at the correct email address:  We send notices of strategy updates or when new content has been published, subscription information, and other correspondence by email, so it is important that we have your email address recorded correctly.

To ensure you always get our email notices, please 'white list' our domain (ETFOptimize.com) in your email program so our mail gets through to you. If you don't receive a notice by Monday morning, please check your 'Junk Email' folder and if found, mark our messages as 'Not junk'' to ensure you receive them in the future.

However, even if you have a problem receiving an email, it should not prevent you from learning about any relevant changes to your strategy's holdings. Just log in to your strategy page on Sunday afternoon, and you will see any changes that are set for implementation the following day (or Tuesday if Monday is a holiday).

Information Changes: If your email address, physical adress, phone number, or any other information changes, please update that information in your account record to reflect your new details. Log in to the Subscriber's Area and select "Customer Profile" from the tabs near the top. Update your email address and click "Save Profile" near the bottom of the page.

2) Strategy Updates: Your Premium ETF Investment Strategy subscription page is updated every weekend. Strategies are updated overnight on Saturday night and by Sunday at noon the updates to all strategies should be complete. You can check the status of your strategy page update from a section near the top, just below the description, that says (for example): 

 

(Example)

The most recent update of our Premium Strategies was on:

Sunday, December 5th, 2021

Strategies are updated each week at midday on Sunday. If there are trades, they should be filled on Monday
(or Tuesday if Monday is a market holiday), avoiding the opening and closing hours and other times
of high volatility. Copyright © 2022 Optimized Investments, Inc., dba ETFOptimize.com, all rights reserved.

 

Updates will always include revised prices, performance data, and new, up-to-date performance charts and statistics, but it may or may not include a change to the Current ETF Positions in your strategy. While we update the strategies every weekend, trades in the models only occur an average of every 4.84 months (with a range of 1.68 months to 20.8 months). If there is a change to the constituent holdings of a strategy, that information is provided on its Strategy Page in the 'Current Holdings' section at the top of the page, in a table titled, 'Most Recent Changes.'

3) Position Changes: Changes are made to the ETF holdings in your strategy only when the strategy's algorithms determine it is appropriate to change them. Remember that the ETFOptimize Premium Strategies are rules-based and quantitative, and there are no discretionary decisions being made. Don't get concerned if you don't see a change of positions for several months. See the section in your strategy's description for the Trading Statistics on the Strategy Page for the average days held (hint: there are 20 trading days in a month).

Also, there also isn't anything amiss if there are new ETF trade updates during several weeks of a month. Frequent changes can occur when conditions are turbulent, and the strategy is adapting to the economic and market environment in an attempt to provide you with the optimal ETFs to own at that particular point in time. Sometimes changes in conditions are spread apart by long periods of time, and sometimes changes can come rapidly. Both situations are possible.

4) Content Updates: We will occassionally send an email will let you know when there is an update to the Quick Look Reports (executive-summary market analysis for the coming week), 'Inside Secrets of Investing' Blog posts (informative articles to make you a better investor), 'ETFOptimize Insights' Reports (in-depth analysis of the signals provided by our proprietary indicators) – or any other new content.

Sometimes these notices do not go out until late on Sunday because a great deal of analysis and composition of charts goes into them. However, you need not wait for that email to see any updates or changes to your strategy; you can access your strategy, showing all updates and changes, each Sunday by Noon EST.

Please be sure to whitelist our domain name (etfoptimize.com) so you will get our weekly mailings. Be sure to check your junk mail on the first Sundays after you have subscribed and if you don't see our mailing, check your junk mail and move our notice into your primary mailbox, marking it as 'Not Junk' (or whatever similar wording your client uses). You may have to do this more than once to ensure our mail always gets to your inbox. Rest assured that we do not send spam or junk mail!

5) You may decide that – after experiencing great success with one strategy – you want to add another. Don't forget that we offer a discount on multiple strategies – up to an additional 20% OFF. For step-by-step details on how to add a strategy to your account, please see this article in our Knowledgebase section.

6) If you have questions, please contact us with a Support Ticket. Please allow 24 hours for a response from our staff, depending on the date and time of your contact. On weekends and holidays, responses may take longer.





Critical Information!

Recommendations for Success

 


1) Avoid Discretionary Second-Guessing of Your Strategy's Selections

When using a quantitative investment approach (as offer with your ETFOptimize strategy), you should follow that model's recommendations WITHOUT analyzing, reviewing or second-guessing the selections or the timing of trades. Investors who have spent more than a few years applying their education and hard-won experience to the investment process might consider this admonition to be foolhardy. However, the most important contribution that quantitative trading strategies provide to you is that they are immune from the human behavioral errors that consistently sabotage the performance of novice, veteran, and professional investors alike.

According to data from Dalbar, Inc., over rolling 20-year periods, individual investors have earned an average of just 2.6% per year from their investments, which is only slightly more than the long-term rate of inflation and about -5% per year less than buying-and-holding the S&P 500 ETF. The most pervasive cause of investor's poor returns is self-inflicted: a smorgasbord of human behavioral errors.

Your ETFOptimize strategy can reward you with triple, quadruple, or even 10-times the return an average investor attains – as long as you have the discipline to follow the strategy's recommendations to the letter. While some ETF selections may seem counterintuitive, you should still execute each trade as presented.  The ETF you question is often a selection that will surprise you with exceptionally high returns.  (Read more about the advantages of systematic investment strategies.)

Don't negate the enormous advantages of rules-based investing by second-guessing your strategy's recommendations!


2) Don't Expect Perfection from Every Trade

The ETFOptimize Investment Strategies use more than 36 proven leading and concurrent indicators to determine the signals for whether the current and near-term market regime is expected to be constructive (bullish) or contracting (bearish) and to determine the most appropriate ETF selection for the strategy. Most of these indicators operate on the intermediate-term timeframe, anticipating the coming week and as far out as 6-9 months. 

There may be times when you feel your strategy is in the diametrically wrong position – and that may be true in the near term. For example, a model may identify that – overall – the market environment has turned bearish, changing to a defensive ETF position – yet stocks continue gaining ground for another week or two.

If this happens, please don't get discouraged, thinking your strategy is not working and abandon it! That short-term rally against your position is probably nothing more than market noise as stocks bounce around in a volatile matter as they top out and turn downward. Try to ignore the short-term activity of your positions and think of your investment as just that – an investment – not a short-term trade that you watch every day.

Allow those ETF positions to move around, while you maintain a steady, unemotional tenor.

Sometimes your strategy will show poor performance or even losses from individual trades in the short term. However, overall the ETFOptimize models have about 78% winning trades, which is much higher than the industry average for actively-managed portfolios (54%). However, that means that for any individual trade, there is still a 22% chance you could lose money on it. Occasionally, your strategy could have a series of several unfortunate weeks or (rarely) months in which it doesn't keep pace with its benchmark. While exceptional, you should not be surprised if this contingency occurs. That said, our strategy's average winning trade gains almost three times as much as the average losing trade, with the biggest winners averaging 58.21% and the average biggest losers at only -9.36%.

Reversion to the Mean

Remember, this is investing, not figure skating – that is, successful investing involves maximizing the probability of gain – not attaining perfection. If there are a series of weak months from your strategy, we can assure you almost unequivocally that it should soon recover that weak period and more, providing significant gains and outperformance in the subsequent months. Whether the strategy performs unexpectedly well or disappoints you in the short term, the performance is highly likely to 'revert to its mean' – and each strategy's mean (similar to the long-term average) provides you with a significantly higher return than the benchmark or S&P 500 index. In other words, don't have such high expectations that you give up on your strategy because of temporary underperformance – just before you would have been very profitably surprised.


3) The Most Egregious Error You Can Make

The most egregious error investors make is exiting a trade after a temporary (paper) loss, out of fear of further losses. This action results in locking in drawdowns and thereby, converting the paper loss into an actual, financial loss. It's a typical human reaction to temporary, sharp downturns – and you should assiduously avoid making this classic mistake. If it is appropriate to sell a position at a loss, you should allow your ETFOptimize Premium Investment Strategy to make that decision. Remember, your algorithmic ETF strategy is designed to produce extraordinary profits for you over the long-term. However, you must be 100% committed to the long-term to see those exceptional profits.

Always keep in mind that an individual ETF represents the collective performance of tens, hundreds, or even thousands of companies, so the only way an index-based ETF can drop to zero might be if vast numbers of companies in the United States are faced with an untimely demise. Short of an all-out, surprise nuclear war, that's highly unlikely. In such a situation, the last thing on your mind would probably be your ETF holdings.  Fortunately, that's not likely anytime soon (at least we have to assume not).

Nevertheless, when a sharp drop of prices occurs during a correction, recency bias can make investors negate the multi-year bull market that proceeded the correction. Investors forget about the very favorable, underlying economic fundamentals that are in place, forget about the bullish long-term forecasts that have not changed, and disregard their long-term commitment to following their strategy and achieving their investment goals. Needless to say, sharp corrections that result in emotional decisions have been the undoing of many a saver's well-considered investment plans.

Always keep in mind that as long as macroeconomic forces and company fundamentals remain intact and positive, any downturn in the market is going to be limited to the category of a 'correction,' and not the beginning of a long-term, severe collapse of the market. Severe collapses of the market are almost always associated with economic recessions. If you take steps to exit your strategy's positions out of fear of additional losses, you lock-in those losses and will probably miss out on the subsequent recovery of prices. Since the ETFOptimize systematic investment strategies monitor and assess macroeconomic changes on a weekly basis, they will identify whether a recession is imminent and will take the appropriate actions, based on their design.



The stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth
from the impatient to the patient. —Warren Buffett



The vast majority of investors self-sabotage themselves with involuntary, nearly inescapable, emotional reactions that are dramatically amplified when decisions involve money-related matters. Warren Buffett, one of the wealthiest men in the world (worth $80 billion as a result of successful investing), has said that if you have a "reasonably valid investment approach," the most important criteria you need for success is patience.

Not brilliance, not quick thinking, not endless resources – just patience. The ETFOptimize strategies unquestionably provide you with a 'reasonably valid investment approach.' Now, the only thing you need to do is follow the recommendations and patiently stay the course. The magic of compound interest will do the rest!


4) Avoid the Media's Negativity

While some might think our advice to avoid the media to be unusual – this is a stern admonishment – we believe investors should consider avoiding all stories about the market, the economy, business expectations, and other related coverage. The reason is that the media's objectives – and your objectives – are clearly at odds with one another.

Here's why:

Producers at media companies (cable financial news, printed financial media, online financial media, radio/audio, electronic) know that negative news stories attract significantly more attention than other types of news stories. Therefore, these producers regularly sprinkle the most frightening investment/economic stories as part of their regular programming mix to attract viewership/readership, which serves a financial motive – i.e., enhancing their company’s bottom line.

You have undoubtedly heard the broadcast-news motto: “If it bleeds, it leads.” While businesses don’t bleed as people do in violent, mainstream stories (of murder, car wrecks, and general mayhem), they are surely known to hemorrhage red ink, and those stories of loss and failure also grab attention with their audience. Attracting audience attention with the emotion of fear is the most potent tool the media has at its disposal!

If not outright, many investors are influenced subconsciously by these stories and, concerned about losing money; they act on the narratives they have heard – sometimes without even knowing it. Many ultimately kick themselves for taking money-losing, defensive action near a market bottom – when the opposite approach would’ve been the wiser choice.

Always remember, the media’s business motivations to generate viewership and sell services DOES NOT align with your investing success.  As e, their financial bottom-line is their primary motivation, and that often means including a substantial number of negative stories that attract viewership – which means more revenues. The stories presented by innumerable ‘experts’ – which is cost-free, bread-and-butter content for stations like CNBC, Bloomberg, and countless websites, are rife with opinions from guests that have a smorgasbord of motivations different from yours.

The motivation of 99% of the financially oriented content you see in the media is designed to elicit an emotional response that will prompt you to purchase their product. This motivation is 100% opposed to your objective of attaining a consistent, robust profit on your investment dollars.

This situation is not a development of modern-day media. Take a look at these 1950s-era warnings to investors from successful, old-school value investors:

"An investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his 
thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace."
Warren Buffett

"Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process."
Benjamin Graham
(Extraordinary value investor and Warren Buffett’s mentor)

Please don’t take these cautionary messages lightly!  If you need credibility to back up these statements, Warren Buffett is the wealthiest investor who ever lived (he started with $500 and has a net worth of about $90 billion today), and Benjamin Graham is the man whom Buffett credits for getting him on the right path toward that success.

Of course, these men made their fortunes using old-school value-investing techniques – an approach with very sporadic results today. We have proven the performance of value investing, and other methods can be eclipsed – without their inherent drawdowns – by the return of modern, quantitative ETF-based investing strategies, such as those offered by ETFOptimize.com.

 

Disregard the Business Media Altogether?

We have long admonished our friends, clients, and associates that to be successful at investing, you should consider entirely avoiding the financial media. Instead, allowing your quantitative strategy to make all the decisions for you. When investors take this approach, they regularly report an improved frame of mind, more quality time spent with loved ones, less stress, and increased success in reaching their financial goals.

Systematic investing has proven itself to work well in every type of market environment. However, some investors have trouble breaking their bad habit of watching/reading financial news to stay abreast of the latest development – and many times, those investors can't help themselves from acting on those developments. Systematic investing is an approach that shuns 'expert' opinion and discretionary decisions, but it requires discipline to follow a systematic strategy for long periods.

Systematic investing is an approach that can be incredibly successful if you can find the willpower to be a contrarian in this regard, eschewing the financial media, which is highly motivated to keep you watching– and acting. Don't fall for this game! Tune out the talking heads, read and follow the recommendations of your strategy each weekend, and relax!


5) DON'T Apply Stop-Loss Orders to Your Positions

We NEVER use (and highly discourage the use by subscribers of) STOP-LOSS ORDERS, which are orders executed the moment your ETF drops a single penny below the percentage or price you set as its Stop. We do use stop-loss criteria in weekend signals for a couple of our models, but that is entirely different from what you would receive if you apply a broker-based stop-loss order to your positions.

First, a Stop-Loss that you would apply is a signal that is external to the carefully crafted indicators built into your model. We advise subscribers never to make extraneous buy and sell decisions that override the decisions of your model! Moreover, testing of your arbitrary Stop-Loss signal over robust periods, including bull markets and bear markets, has not been completed, so you have no idea what the effect will be in the long run. We have tested all the variations, including intraday, mid-week Stop Loss Orders, and can tell you now that they will result will be decreased profits.

We have published an article that discusses the use of Stop Loss Orders with our quantitative ETF strategies. This article will provide you with several more good reasons to NOT apply a Stop Loss Order to the ETF-based positions in your systematic investment mode.

6) ETF Best Practices

ETFs are entirely different animals than individual stocks and have their own set of rules for maximizing your profit on every trade. Please review our article: ETF Transactions: Best Practices for Optimum Profits to learn how you can reduce costs and maximize your gain on every trade.

7) Additional Questions?

If we have not answered your question here or on the strategy Profile (preview) or strategy Premium (subscriber) pages, please check our Knowledgebase section for additional subjects and suggestions. If your question is still not answered, see the next item...

8) Need Help? Get Support!

The team of highly experienced, ETFOptimize professionals is on standby to help get your questions answered any day of the week. We usually check our Support Forum inbox once or twice a day, so please allow 24 hours for us to respond after you submit a ticket on our Support Forum.


Premium Strategy Login

 Or you can click the following link, or copy and paste this text into your browser's address window to go to the log-in page:

https://etfoptimize.com/amember/login

 The login page is also linked in the menu at the top and bottom of every page of the site.

Please bookmark and return to these suggestions from time-to-time
(or if you ever consider doing something other than what your strategy is recommending)!

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