Note: Readers should not attempt to use the writer's interpretations as trading signals. These articles should only be used as educational content to help the reader understand current market conditions. They are not actionable. All ETFOptimize Strategy holdings are determined solely by the proprietary investment algorithms used in our systems, without the influence of discretionary judgments. The ETFOptimize Strategies provide you with a comprehensive investment system that needs no additional outside input, and we recommend that subscribers follow the trades of their systematic model to the letter.
Why Use a Summer Start?
Significant Problems When Starting on January 1
Since 2000, we have launched our Premium Strategies live on July 1 each year, with this fiscal year running to the following year's June 30. We do this because of the volatility swings around the calendar change on January 1 each year. This market volatility is caused by investors temporarily motivated by external factors that have nothing to do with stock valuations, earnings, or other fundamental or technical considerations.
First, there is the so-called "Santa Claus Rally" in December, when a subset of sketchy pros takes advantage of the meager volume from amateur retail traders around Christmas as an opportunity to manipulate prices in whichever direction favors their needs, usually higher. Tax-loss harvesting (unbridled selling to book losses) will dominate year-end if it was a year like the first half of 2022, and extensive portfolio rebalancing activities by PMs and mutual funds occur around January 1. Also, the overall market is more likely to tank in early January than at any other time.
These activities cause unpredictable volatility that can skew broad ETF prices enough to send a portfolio's performance for the year into either the profit or loss column. Meanwhile, we found that using a start and finish during the summer months offers far more consistent returns each year for the same portfolio. Fewer amateurs participate during the summer, market emotions are usually calmer, and prices are typically far more steady.
Delayed: Because of unexpected challenges, not every critical pro on our team has been able to carefully review and sign off on each of the revisions or components of the new models, and the articles introducing these strategies are not yet complete. However, the final review process is not time consuming. Our team has been working with these models for months, in some cases, years.
Because of an enormous increase in the number of our retail subscribers and professional clients in the last 6-9 months, accompanied by an untimely recent staffing challenge, we're running late and won't be able to launch the new models on July 1 as anticipated. However, we expect to introduce them over the next few weeks, with the first update announced on Tuesday, July 5.
Nevertheless, July 1 is not a magical date. It is just a date in the middle of the slow summer months that is not affected by the pricing issues discussed in the paragraph above. It has always been convenient because it was a relatively uneventful period for the investment world, but this particular year is a little different.
Follow Your Strategy's Recommendations – To The Letter
We offer the following suggestion with every article we publish. Whether it's ours or another firm's systematic strategy you are following, please observe this guidance:
If you are using a Rules-Based Investment Strategy,
PLEASE FOLLOW YOUR STRATEGY'S GUIDANCE 100%!
Don't SECOND GUESS your Systematic Model!
The ETFOptimize Premium Strategies don't collectively have a record of 92 consecutive years of profitability without a good reason. Rules-based investing works!
But it only works if you follow it to the letter...
Our quantitative models will consistently help you avoid portfolio-destroying losses and assist you in attaining your long-term financial goals with a much smoother journey than buy-and-hold, discretionary, guru-based, or any other investment approach. However, rules-based strategies use probabilities. They are not intended to, nor can they accomplish, loss-free investing success. They are designed to catch trends shortly after they have started, to mitigate losses once it's clear that a loss is imminent, and make big gains when the market is showing that gains are immenent. Quantitative models are not predictive. They react rather than anticipate.
The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), short-term thinking, or second-guessing your model's decisions is the most significant risk you face when you follow a quantitative strategy. Chasing performance with another approach and dumping your ETFOptimize Premium Strategy because you see someone or something else performing better this week, this month, or even this year, is imprudent.
If you have questions about this content, please contact us at your convenience via our Support Ticket system. Usually, we'll respond much sooner, but please allow 24 hours for a Support Team member to respond. We also hope you will take a moment to provide us with feedback on the site content and design, new features, and our product line. Your input is much appreciated!
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The ETFOptimize Premium Investment Strategies have a proven track record of consistently high-performance success over long periods. Our premium model strategies have provided an average Annual Return of 30.53% since their inception – which is a multiple of more than quadruple (415%) the long-term Annual Return of the S&P 500, and more than eight times more than the index' return since 2000. The ETFOptimize strategies have never experienced a money-losing year, and collectively, have recorded 77 of 77 consecutive winning years!
One example of a Premium Strategy that were proud of is our Adaptive Equity+ (2 ETF) Strategy, which has an Annual Return since Inception of about 40%, an Annual Return in the last three years of 64%, and a 2019 Annual Return of 76%. Moreover, its Maximum Drawdown is just -7%, and it has a Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe ratio) of 2.58. So the model's performance is improving each year.
Here's the Adaptive Equity+ (2 ETF) Strategy's chart since inception:
The Adaptive Equity+ (2 ETF) Strategy provides exceptional returns with very minimal drawdowns.
The ETFOptimize strategies operate using our proprietary, quantitative financial-analysis programming that has been continuously upgraded and refined over the last 25 years, accompanied by the highest-quality, point-in-time investment and economic databases. As ETFs have become increasingly popular over the last 20 years, we've embrace these products, which offer investors instant-diversification – eliminating the individual company risk inherent in stocks.
Why not look over our strategy lineup now and see which if there's one that's a fit for you? It's actually very affordable to put a high-performance, quantitative investment strategy to work for you every week of the year. The ETFOptimize models are available by subscription starting at just $9.00/mo.
Professional money managers please contact us for a quote through our Support-Ticket System.
Do some research; we don't think you'll find a superior approach to investing – offered at such an exceptionally low cost, and making consistently high-performance investment results affordable for even the smallest investor. You control your money in your own account and follow our clear instructions for trades, which occur an average of only about three-six times per year. We provide you with weekly updates of your strategy and an analysis of the market that always tells you what's critically important.
Plus, you can subscribe without risk because each model is backed by a 60-day, 100% Moneyback Guarantee if you decide that algorithmically based strategies are not your cup of tea. Our firm, Optimized Investments, Inc., and website, ETFOptimize.com, have an A+ Rating with the Better Business Bureau and a perfect record of satisfied customers – zero complaints – since the BBB began reviewing our firm, which was founded in 1998.
Take a moment to sign up for the strategy of your choice now – while all the benefits of a quantitative approach are fresh in your mind. You can get started for less than 50-cents a day with a very low-risk, high-profit investment strategy that produces solid performance through thick and thin – in any type of market environment.
Moreover, remember that you have nothing to lose – if you change your mind anytime in the first two months – for any reason (or no reason at all) – just let us know and we'll return every penny you paid! Visit our ETF Investment Strategy Suite today and select a quantitative strategy perfect for you:
Visit our ETF Investment Strategy Suite