INTRODUCTION


The ETFOptimize Advantage


 The ETFOptimize Advantage

 

The ETFOptimize Advantage



Now you can take advantage of an honest-to-goodness breakthrough in the world of investing – a legitimate paradigm shift, made possible by the unique, creative application of state-of-the-art technological resources to the challenges of volatile financial markets.

ETFOptimize is a pioneer in designing quantitative, algorithmic investment strategies for self-guided Individual Investors. What makes our strategies unique and so successful is that we have isolated 28 different, high-correlation factors derived from time series in the following groups: 1) macroeconomic indicators, 2) market-internal measures, and 3) stock fundamentals. From these time series, we construct sophisticated ETF ranking and selection systems that provide incredibly robust performance regardless of the market environment – whether bullish, bearish, or sideways and volatile. 

Our carefully-crafted investment systems are built by designers who collectively have more than five decades of experience with investing, investment analysis, and constructing quantitative investment strategies – as opposed to the typical academics or math PhDs that most companies hire as strategy designers, but who frequently have never purchased a share of stock in their lives. As a result of our designer's broad investment experience, clients get performance that is exceptionally robust, with limited drawdowns and consistent profitability year after year.  In fact, the ETFOptimize strategies have never lost money in any calendar year!

We are proud to have provided quantitative investment strategies to thousands of satisfied individual investors since 1998 and have an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau – without a single complaint in all those years. Our dedication to your success, backed by a 60-day, 100% money-back guarantee of your satisfaction, ensures that you will be able to achieve your financial goals – and achieve them on your terms.

Building the "Investor's Wish List" Over the Last 20 Years

In 1998, we began conducting annual surveys, both through our website and in person at conferences, of hundreds of investors about their needs and frustrations related to investment advisors, investment newsletters, model portfolios, investment strategies, and other approaches to successful investing. By December 2017, we had surveyed more than 5,000 investors of virtually every type you can imagine and found that their desires for the 'perfect investment portfolio' might vary a bit from one person to the next, but nearly everyone seemed to agree that specific core characteristics would be highly desirable.

From these surveys over the last two decades, we constructed what we call the "Investor's Wish List," composed of the top-ranked desires of the vast majority of investors. Please have a look at our list and see how many items on it would also be on your 'Wish List':


Investor's Wish List

 

ETFOptimize then spent years building these exact features into each of our turnkey, subscription, ETF investment strategies. Every one of the items on the Investor's Wish List above is provided by the turnkey strategies in our ETF Investment Strategy Suite!

For example, as mentioned in #9 above, on average our strategies produce more than 3.6 times the long-term return of the market (S&P 500). And as in #2 above, depending on the approach selected, there is an average of 2 to 7.2 months between trades. For many investors, and perhaps best of all, #12 above says "never a money-losing year," and that's precisely what you get with the ETFOptimize Investment Strategies. Since inception, through all backtests and in real-time, our strategies have never lost money in any calendar year – even during the Financial Crisis in 2008-2009.

An ETFOptimize Breakthrough Rocks the Industry

ETFOptimize has combined decades of experience in investment-strategy design with today's advanced computer capabilities, high-quality financial databases, and a state-of-the-art programming approach. We have shocked the investment industry by offering – for the first time – a set of ETF ranking and selection systems that utilize as many as 28 different time-series, including macroeconomic indicators, market internals, stock fundamentals. We also include an analysis of the performance of critical segments of the market and individual sectors to determine the directional bias of risk assets. This approach establishes our Market Regime Indicator, which identifies whether to hold long ETFs, cash or inverse (short) ETFs (some strategies do not use inverse ETFs).

Each of our strategies includes a Ranking System component that takes into consideration a plethora of macroeconomic and fundamental factors used for determining the most profitable ETF to own at any given time. The advantage of considering so many critical components, rather than just one or two (as is used by most ETF-strategy advisors), is the accuracy and robustness we can attain. One of our many tests of the systems is to run them with each component removed and then with two and three elements removed. If the strategies can still perform with excellence when missing these components, then we know we have a robust system that will continue to deliver even if a series' historical, predictive correlation fails at some point. This sophisticated, multi-faceted, 28-component approach to ETF selection is a first for any quantitative strategy provider, investment advisor, or fund manager of which we are aware.

By combining two very valuable investment tools of the modern era (ETFs and quantitative strategies), and then adding our innovative, breakthrough approach that improves accuracy and turbocharges performance in all market environments, we can offer an investment product that checks every box on an investor's wish list – attaining high-performance with minimal drawdowns, low trading frequency, and plentiful diversification.


The ETFOptimize approach offers a quantum leap in portfolio performance over competitor's ETF-rotation strategy offerings...

Our approach offers a quantum leap in portfolio performance over comparable subscription-strategy offerings by others that depend on just one or at most only two or three indicators for determining market exposure and asset selection (most subscription strategies use momentum harvesting alone). The result of our more sophisticated and advanced approach is that ETFOptimize provides a variety of more highly profitable and more consistently robust investment strategies than any other source to help you meet your wealth-accumulation goals.


Our Sophisticated Ranking Systems Always Select the Most Profitable ETF

Our carefully engineered Ranking Systems are designed to select the optimum ETF to hold at any given time, whether stocks are in a bull market, bear market, or during volatile, sideways conditions. The objective of each strategy is always to select the ETF that will produce the highest risk-adjusted return that is possible for the conditions. By that, we mean achieving the maximum upside performance with the minimal downside risk. We accomplish this goal by building some innovative programming into our ranking systems.

We use several sophisticated ranking systems in our strategies, an example being our "Multi-500: 8 Factor" Ranking System which we utilize in the S&P 500 Aggressive Strategy. The function of a ranking system in quantitative investment analysis is to place a universe of ETFs (or stocks) in a sequentially ordered, composite series.

The Multi-500: 8 Factor Ranking System quantifies eight groups of market internals, stock fundamentals, and econometric relationships. We assign a weighting and numeric value to a total of 28 time-series and convert each into a composite score for each ETF in a strategy's universe.

On a weekly basis, our Multi-500: 8-Factor Ranking System performs an analysis of dozens of criteria in these categories:

 

8-Factor Ranking System

 


The ETFOptimize Difference

Our suite of turnkey, quantitative investment strategies relies on the latest technology and state-of-the-art databases to generate systematic ranking and timing systems that automatically assess the market and economic conditions. Our ranking and timing systems select the optimum ETF to hold in a portfolio at any point in time.

The ETFOptimize strategy designers have a combined half-century of experience building quantitative investment strategies and as active investors. We have constructed each approach from evidence-based, scientifically sound correlations and cause-and-effect relationships inherent in financial markets and asset prices.

There is a crucial difference between the ETFOptimize strategies and other ETF-based, adaptive strategies or model ETF portfolios offered by the handful of our peers of which we are aware. This small group includes some well-known investment brokerages, a few investment advisors, and 1-2 independent websites. The difference between ETFOptimize and other strategy providers is in the breadth of data we utilize in each strategy, combined with our unique and sophisticated algorithms and programming.

Most strategies offered by other providers rely on one, or perhaps two, indicators or 'factors.' Academics have identified these factors in studies that typically focus on 1) value, 2) momentum, 3) company size, or 4) quality when screening for stocks. However, ETF-based investing can involve (but usually doesn't for most investors) the analysis of various market segments, sectors, industries, and countries. It can also include analysis and use of factors related to a multitude of macroeconomic measures, internal-market breadth statistics, and asset fundamentals. What's unique about investment markets is that there is an enormous number of factors that can affect any given portion of the market. 


The ETFOptimize strategies are build by engineers with a half-century of experience in investment-strategy design...

The other systematic ETF-strategy providers of which we are aware base their ETF selection on pure momentum or technical signals such as moving-average crossovers. The reason others use these factors is that they're easy to identify based on daily price data alone. There is nothing complicated or sophisticated at all about using momentum. As a result, this lack of a comprehensive, robust approach gets reflected in the performance of those strategies. They regularly disappoint their users because momentum often gives false signals that result in losses.

However, ETFOptimize has a unique advantage because our custom, Wall-Street quality databases allow us to assess every company in an index on many thousands of factors or formulas then compare that index to all others using the same parameter. For example, our computers might instantly analyze each of the 2,000 companies in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and rank them sequentially based on a formula such as Enterprise Value-to-Cash Flow (EV/CF).

Also, ETFOptimize is using macroeconomic signals such as unemployment, interest rates, industrial production, etc. for market analysis and determination of the proper exposure levels. The sophisticated factors we use and proprietary algorithms we have built provide far more accurate and robust timing and selection signals than any other ETF-selection advisory service we know.


The ETF Investment Strategy Suite

Our suite of subscription ETF-based strategies relies on advanced algorithms using quantitative ranking and sophisticated timing systems that automatically assess a variety of measures of the conditions of the market and the economy, resulting in the selection of the optimum ETF to hold in a portfolio at any given time.

Within the parameters of the different investment approaches, the objective of each strategy is to achieve the maximum risk-adjusted returns. By that we mean the highest possible portfolio performance that is achievable with the least amount of drawdown, volatility, and to put it in human terms... well, the least amount of stress.

Each week our sophisticated ETF-rotation models combine the systematic analysis of nearly three-dozen proven financial market 'tells' with multiple, state-of-the-art econometric and asset-specific databases to create smooth, high-return investment performance through any kind of market environment – bullish, bearish, or sideways and volatile. Whatever drama is occurring in the market is irrelevant, because the ETFOptimize strategies produce consistent profits, month after month – year after year.

The average annual return for our Suite of ETF Strategies ranges from 15% to 35% compound growth per year (since inception), depending on the strategy selected. For 2017, the average return for these model portfolios was 39.47%, which is more than double the return of the market (18.74%), as represented by the S&P 500. Perhaps best of all, 100% of all years are profitable for each of our strategies since inception. On average, maximum drawdowns of our strategies amount to less than about one-third of the worst drawdowns of the overall market, and risk-adjusted returns (which consider downturns) are nearly off-the-charts, with an average Sharpe ratio of 1.48 and an average Sortino ratio of 2.22.

An example of one of our strategies is our performance-leading Optimized Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy, which we discuss next...


Optimized Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy

Our Optimized Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy, (shown below) produces the highest performance available from our Suite of ETF Strategies with an average annual return of 35% since inception. The strategy regularly chooses the top two equity-based ETFs from a universe of 216, well-vetted equity ETFs. In 2017, the performance of the strategy accelerated, and it produced a return of 64%, with a drawdown of just -6%. While the S&P 500 delivered an exceptional return of about 18% in 2017, our Optimized Equity Rotation strategy tripled that performance!

Adaptive Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy
Asset Allocation-2-4-eq-fixed
Our Optimal Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy shows an average return of 35% since inception in 2006 with a return of 76% last year. See details.




Notice from its chart (above) the Optimized Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy's steady climb higher (red line, top window) occurred without a significant profit-destroying drawdown (including during the Financial Crisis). Whenever economic and market conditions drop below a certain threshold, this strategy sells its ETF positions and moves to cash, resulting in a total return that is more than 17-times higher than the S&P 500's performance (blue line).

The total return for the strategy from July 1, 2006 to present is 3,139%. During that 11.5-year span, this strategy turned every $100k invested into more than $3 million. The "Optimized Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy" is just one example of the many choices in our Suite of ETF Investment Strategies, ensuring there's an approach that is perfect for every investor's wealth-building objectives.

As shown by the chart below, in the last 12 months our Optimized Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy's pace of gains accelerated, with a return for the last year of 74.52% (while SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 25.92%). During the previous year, this very high-return strategy had a maximum drawdown of just -6.09%. That's a very high risk-reward ratio, as reflected in the strategy's amazing 2017 Sharpe Ratio of 4.32.


Adaptive Equity Rotation (2 ETF) Strategy - 12 Months

Our Optimal Equity Rotation Strategy produced a return of 74.52% in the last 12 months (as of Jan 2018), triple the return of the S&P 500 (25.92%). See details.


The combination of protection against market turbulence and significant downturns, combined with the exceptional performance that results from selecting the optimum equity ETF at all times, provides an unbeatable performance package for investors seeking the highest, most consistent returns.


Simple and Easy

We make it effortless for you to accumulate profits with ETF investing.  With the high performance and low drawdowns our strategies provide, why would an investor spend time incessantly seeking the slightest edge to try and beat the market with individual stocks (and then get losses as often as gains)? Or allow a mutual fund manager to make repeated money-losing mistakes, when you can sit back, relax, and await the ETFOptimize signals – while getting much higher returns with much lower drawdowns in the process? By rotating between just a few ETFs a year with two-to-seven months between trades, our subscribers are getting returns that on average, are more than TRIPLE the market's performance.

Our model strategies are straightforward to use for non-professional investors because they hold just 1, 2 or 4 positions at a time and don't rely on the rapid churning of trades to generate their outstanding gains. While each portfolio is updated and signals are automatically assessed each week to respond to changes in conditions rapidly, the rotation of the ETF(s) held in the strategies occur with an average of 2 to 7.3 months between trades (depending on the approach). Each plan uses ETFs that are pre-screened for liquidity and stability, allowing our strategies to accommodate virtually any size of a transaction and any size portfolio.

For example, our Asset Allocation: Equity/Fixed Income (4 ETF) Combo Strategy holds positions for an average of 5.3 months. That combination includes two Equity ETFs owned for an average of 66 days (about 3.3 months), while it holds the two Fixed Income ETFs an average of 146.75 market sessions (approximately 7.34 months).

The low-cost, ETFOptimize Premium Strategy subscriptions provide you with detailed weekly updates for each model.   Each Premium Strategy Page is updated to show precisely the performance the model is achieving, all historical transactions, and clear trade signals that provide details of which ETFs to buy or sell and when to make your trades to attain the highest return from each investment.

Learn the secret of turning $10k into more than $300 million as you save for retirement.

See our Suite of ETF-based Strategies

 


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